THE COTTON ROW JOURNAL by varner brothers

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New York: Volume: 15,769.. Open Interest: 140,645 -2,619.. Cert Stocks: 968,736.. KB... ... AUS$ -2.2%...Euro -1.0%... Yen +1.1% ...Gold -0.4%... Copper -3.9%... Crude -1.0%... CRB -0.6%... Soybeans -0.5%... S&P -0.7%
CALENDAR: First Notice Day is Thursday, 20 Nov...

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Daily Column

Previously Published

“I’M JUST YOUR AVERAGE BEAR”

The old cartoon featuring Yogi Bear often had the character greeting his mates with the above one-liner. Yogi’s famous line pretty much sums up this year’s dilemma, which is how severe this recession and resultant bear market in cotton will be. Going back to the period of 1973-76, we looked at individual charts to get a better idea than just looking at the weekly continuation. A savvy trader made mention that the market in those years went to full carry, so the move up from the major low in December 1974 was not as pronounced as the continuation chart indicates. The Mar 75 contract bottomed near 37c, after tumbling from 70c. Referring to the Mar 76 contract, it bottomed a few days after the Mar 75, hitting a low of 42c the first trading day of 1976. From that level, it rose to 63c...